Why No Cassandra of Hope?

Cassandra has become a byword for the mocked or ignored doomer. The Bible is replete with Casandras. Noah builds an ark while his neighbors jeer. The angels who foretell destruction to the inhabitants of Sodom are regarded as jokers. In Greek Tragedy, Cassandra finds no way to capture value; she cannot monetize her contrarian secret, as Peter Thiel would advise. She anticipates her downfall and the downfall of Agamemon, yet is fated to suffer it in anyways. Likewise, Jeremiah warns his people of the impending destruction of Jerusalem, yet is thrown into a cistern for his demoralizing message. Ironically, while most Biblical prophets are reluctant to bring a message that will be ignored, Jonah is unique in his reluctance to bring a message that will be heard and actioned. He is the exception that proves the rule.

In modern times, Nassim Taleb, has written about—and capitalized on—the notion that we underprice the possibility of crisis and catastrophe. Our world is more fragile than we think. To my knowledge, his focus has been on extreme downside scenarios, like the Great Financial Crisis, not the notion of radical upside or “positive convexity,” e.g., the notion that global GDP might re-accelerate.

Why is it that myth and literature are replete with ignored messages of doom rather than ignored messages of hope? True, Isaiah is famous for his messianic vision in which “the lion shall lie down with the lamb,” but is he laughed out of town for this positive message? No.

One possible answer is that those who portend optimistic views bank on incrementalism (the tortoise vs. the hare), not inflection points. Still, it’s curious.

Until next time,

Zohar